Why the northern hemisphere’s winter is colder and longer?

 

This winter has been extreme around the northern part of the globe. The prediction of such colder and longer winter has been predicted for 2030 but it came longer before that. This is due to phenomena called polar vortex which is a cyclonic effect in the north and south part of the globe. Polar vortex has 2 centers in the north, one in Canada and the other in eastern Siberia. Polar vortex relies on the temperature difference between the north and the equator.

The ocean and earth surface temperature has increased by 0.9oC causing the melting of the ice on the land in Greenland. This is fresh water that will reduce the salination level of the sea and increase the less desalinated top 400 meters. The top 400 meters moves north from the equator taking the heat with it. As the heat dissipate the water gets more dense and goes below 400 meters and move back to the equator creating what is called ocean current.

The current already starts to be affected and we started to see the effect on the northern part of the globe, colder, longer and more severe conditions. As more and more ice melts in the north and south, more current will be affected.

In the southern hemisphere, Australia has one of the worst droughts in the eastern states. The bushfires are increasing day by day. In South Australia, Adelaide city has the highest temperature record in its history and for that day, it was the highest temperature in the world.

A new World energy outlook report by International energy agency

This report is more about climate change than energy. The executive summary of the report named “redrawing the energy-climate map” has an emphasis on energy landscape specifically fossil fuel and its impact on climate. The report states that the world is not on track to meet the target agreed by governments to limit the longterm rise in the average global temperature to 2 degree Celsius. Carbon-dioxide (CO) levels in the atmosphere exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in several hundred millennia. Policies that have been implemented, or are now being pursued, suggest that the long-term average temperature increase is more likely to be between 3.6 °C and 5.3 °C (compared with pre-industrial levels), with most of the increase occurring this century. While global action is not yet sufficient to limit the global temperature rise to 2 °C, this target still remains technically feasible, though extremely challenging.

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2013/

Energy outlook for the next 20 years

Is the Australian Government Clean Energy Future Act 2011 is about Energy Efficiency and carbon pricing mechanism or Energy Security?

By 2030, the world population will go up by 1.4 billion; global energy demand will grow by roughly 40%; emerging economies will be responsible for 96% of the energy demand growth. More than half of the growth will come from china and India. Growing supply of bio fuels and unconventional oil and gas will turn North America’s energy deficit into small surplus. India will double its energy use with heavy dependence on coal that might be sources from Australia and 320 Million Tons of oil a year. China will consume 793 Million Ton of oil a year. Fossil Fuel will supply 81% of the world energy. Oil will make up 87% of the world transport fuel; Biofuel will make up 7%. Global co2 Emission may rise by about 28%. The road transport sectors will double its energy efficiency and the sales of conventional passengers cars will fall to 1/3 of total sales. 31% of the global vehicle fleet will be Hybrids. Renewable energy resource will supply 11% of the world electricity and renewable fuels are increasing at 8% annually. Renewable and hydro will represent more than half the growth of power generation.

The Australian Government Clean energy future legislation has three pillars, carbon pricing mechanism, renewable energy, energy efficiency and carbon farming initiative.

When a government decided to put price on carbon and encourage energy efficiency, is it about carbon emission or about energy security. By putting price on carbon and link it to energy efficiency in the same legislation, government encourages the move to low carbon economy and reduce the dependence on fossil fuel. Government will not say publicly that these measures are for energy security for the next 30 years and beyond, but if you analyse the figures above, you would realise it is more likely about energy security.

Figures are from BP energy outlook 2030, London, January 2012

KVA and KVAr

KVA and KVAr are the most misunderstood terms in the world of electricity. Electrical circuits mainly have three types resistance or sometime called the impedances. Firstly conductors which is pure resistance such as your electric heater or toaster and this has power factor of one. Secondly inductive which is coil-based machines such as motors

 The pure component of the induction such as coils in motors which cause the current to be lagging by 90o, due to the fact that motor acts as generators in some stages, is called KVAr, Kilo Volt Ampere Reactive, and power factor is cos 90 = 0 that means the total power in one cycle between the coil and the generator is zero. Electric circuits consists of resistance as well and this would be the reference to the lagging current and have power factor of cos 0= 1. The resultant between these two vectors is called KVA and this is what any facility is or should be charged for. Imagine having a right angle triangle on x and y axis with base 4 KWh representing the real power on x-axis east and on minus y-axis you have pure inductive power of 3KVAr south which is lagging by 90o, the resultant between them is the hypotenuse = 5 “Pythagoras”, and this 5 is called 5 KVA and is the resultant of both the real power and the pure inductive power on the vectors not numbers. Power factor here would be 4/5= 0.8 and the angle between real power and KVA is cos-1α =0.8 then α=36.8o lagging.

Power Factor, true or myth, case study

Power factor is a measurement of how efficiently a facility uses electrical energy. A high power factor means that electrical capacity is being utilized effectively, while a low power factor indicates poor utilization of electric power.

Any circuit that has inductive loads such as motors would have some sort of losses in the circuit that affect the whole network. They also act as generators producing current that distort the current in the network and put it out of phase with the volt. When a current passes through motor, the motor will act as a generator of electrical energy at some stages due to – amongst other factors- the magnetic field variation that will cause phase difference between the voltage and current.

Power = Volt * Amperes * Power Factor

Power Factor = Real Power KW/ Apparent Power KVA

If a generator is rated to give 2000 Amps at a voltage of 400 V, it means this is the highest current and voltage value the machine can give without temperature exceeding safe value. Consequently the rating of the generator is given 400*2000/1000 = 800 KVA the phase difference between the voltage and current depends upon the nature of the load and not upon the generator. Thus if the power factor of the load is 1, the 800 KVA are also 800 KW; and the engine driving the generator has to be capable of delivering this power together with the losses in the generator. But if the power factor of the load is 0.5, the power is only 800 KVA*0.5= 400 KW; so the engine is developing only about one-half of the power of which it is capable, though the generator is supplying its rated 800 KVA.

Similarly, the conductors connecting the generators to the load have to be capable of carrying 2000 Amps without excessive temperature rise; consequently they can transmit 800 KW if the power factor is one but only 400 KW at 0.5 power factor for the same rise in temperature.

It is therefore evident that the higher the power factor of the load, the greater is the power that can be generated by a given generator and transmitted by a given conductor.

For a given power, the lower the power factor, the larger must be the size of the generator to generate that power and greater must be the cross-sectional area of the conductor to transmit it; in other words, the greater is the cost of generation and transmission of electrical energy. This is the reason why supply authorities do all they can to improve the power factor of network loads either by installation of capacitors or by use of tariffs which encourage consumers to do so.

SITUATION
A provides for financial, marketing and business communications services around the world. The facility, a world class printing plant, had excessive charges from their electrical power provider based on their facility’s abnormally low power factor levels.

PROJECT
An expert identified the source of the low power factor levels and designed a power factor correction strategy. By installing low harmonic distortion electronically controlled capacitor banks into the facility’s electrical network the power factor level was corrected, thereby eliminating the periodic demand charges from the utility.

RESULTS

Before power factor correction

Annual demand charge = $ 100,023

Average power factor = 0.85

After power factor correction

Annual demand charge =$ 95,285

Average power factor = 0.93

Savings

Annual demand charge savings =$ 4,738

Solution investments (capacitor) =$ 6,882

Return on investment 69%

This is a case study for a Boston USA based business.

Second law of thermodynamics

The second law of thermodynamic is a natural law, indicates that, although the net heat supplied in a cycle is equal to the network done, the gross heat supplied must be greater than the network done.

In other way, no matter what, there will always be losses in any thermodynamic system which we are reliant upon in generating our electricity, using boilers to produce steam and run turbines. One tonne of black coal will produce 27 GJ of energy that transferred to steam as heat energy and about 2.4 tonne CO2-e.

1 KWh =3.6 MJ, that means the 27 GJ should produce 7.5 MWh, but more likely you would get one third at the end, because two third of the 27 GJ would be lost in the system in form of heat and friction losses. So we burnt one tonne of coal to get one third of energy and emit 2.4 tonne co2-e. as a carbon manager, it is important to be familiar with energy numbers and how they make sense, as I always say, energy is the currency of carbon.

Industrial countries have become increasingly energy conscious with the recognition of dangers to their energy supplies and the rapid increases to their own energy demands. The unpopular use power plants based on fuels which are polluting the environment such as coal and others with poisonous waste such as nuclear; the continued increase in the price of fuels and the subsequent effect on the cost of doing the business and general cost of living is of economic importance to all nations. This general concern has led to continuous assessment of the energy problem with the view to improving the efficiency of utilisation of established form of energy and to seek new sources.

CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology produced State of the Climate report 2012

This report provides a summary of observations of Australia’s climate and analysis of the factors that influence it. It looks at the long term trend of climate in Australia; it notes that the long term trend of global warming has not changed and each decade has been warmer than the previous decade since 1950.

“It highlighted a multi-decadal warming trend over Australia’s land and oceans, an increase in record hot days and decrease in record cold days across the country, a decrease in rainfall in southwest and southeast Australia, an increase in global sea level, and increases in global greenhouse gas concentrations.

The warming trends observed around Australia are consistent with global-scale warming that has been measured during recent decades, despite 2010 and 2011 being the coolest years recorded in Australia since 2001. Global-average surface temperatures were the warmest on record in 2010 (slightly higher than 2005 and 1998). 2011 was the world’s 11th warmest year and the warmest year on record during a La Niña event. The world’s 13 warmest years on record have all occurred in the past 15 years.State of the Climate 2012 also highlights the increase in global sea level and notes sea-level rise around Australia since 1993 is greater than, or equal to, the global average”. Source CSIRO state of the climate 2012

https://www.csiro.au/en/Research/OandA/Areas/Oceans-and-climate/Climate-change-information

https://www.csiro.au/~/media/OnA/Files/StateOfTheClimate2016_24ppReport_WEB.pdf

 

Energy and the first law of thermodynamics

”Energy can be neither created nor destroyed” is the principles of the conversation of energy or first law of thermo dynamics.

All living things depend on energy for survival; the modern civilization can continue to thrive only if existing sources of energy can be developed to meet the growing demand. Energy exist in many forms, from the energy locked up in the atoms of matter itself to the intense radiant heat emitted by the sun, and between these limits energy sources are available such as chemical energy of fuels and the potential energy of large water masses evaporated by the sun. The picture presented is one of humanity tapping into nature taking off energy at every level. Many sources of energy exist; many are known, some perhaps unknown; but when an energy source exists, means must first be found to transform the energy into a form convenient to our purpose.

The potential energy of large masses of water is converted into electrical energy as it passes through water turbines on its way from the mountain to the sea. The energy of combustion of coal is used to produce steam which passes through turbines to generate electrical energy; the energy of combustion of petroleum fuels is used to heat air which expands and pushed a piston in an internal combustion engine to develop mechanical work; uranium atoms are bombarded and nuclear energy released is used as heat to produce steam and generate electricity.

The machinery for such energy transformation has been developed over the last two centuries, mainly by practical engineering, followed closely, but sometimes more distantly by theoretical analysis and research. Even though refinements were made over the years, the fundamentals of these engines are the same. Thermodynamic is the science of the relationship between heat and work. The laws of thermodynamics are natural hypotheses based on observation of the world in which we live. It is observed that heat and work are two mutually convertible forms of energy, and this is the basis of the first law of thermodynamics.

Climate Change indicators

US EPA report on climate change 2012 presents 26 indicators describing trends related to the causes and effects of climate change.

An interesting indicator is a radiative forcing which is a measurement of how greenhouse gases affect the amount of energy absorbed by atmosphere. An increase in radiative forcing means heating effect which leads to warming, while decrease in forcing leads to cooling. From 1990 to 2011 the total radiative forcing from GHG to the earth atmosphere has increased by 30%.

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicatorsEPA-2-24-2016/download.html

CO2 in the atmosphere are increasing at an accelerating rate reaching 394.49 ppm in July 2012

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, the CO2 atmospheric level has reached 394.49 ppm in July 2012. The 2011 average CO2 concentration is 391.57 ppm and for 2010 is 389.78 ppm. For the past ten years, the average annual rate of increase is 2.07 ppm. This rate of increase is more than double the increase in the 1960s. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing at accelerated level.  Globally July 2012 has been the fourth warmest since 1880 around the world. The land temperature for the Northern Hemisphere was the all-time warmest on record, 1.19 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average.

Historical Co2 levels

2002 – 2011, 20.72 ppm, 2.07 ppm per year

2002 – 2011, 20.72 ppm, 2.07 ppm per year

1992 – 2001, 16.00 ppm, 1.60 ppm per year

1982 – 1991, 15.10 ppm, 1.51 ppm per year

1972 – 1981, 13.95 ppm, 1.40 ppm per year

1962 – 1971, 8.88 ppm, 0.89 ppm per year

 

Ahmed Abdoh

ahmed@co2planet.com.au