Energy outlook for the next 20 years

Is the Australian Government Clean Energy Future Act 2011 is about Energy Efficiency and carbon pricing mechanism or Energy Security?

By 2030, the world population will go up by 1.4 billion; global energy demand will grow by roughly 40%; emerging economies will be responsible for 96% of the energy demand growth. More than half of the growth will come from china and India. Growing supply of bio fuels and unconventional oil and gas will turn North America’s energy deficit into small surplus. India will double its energy use with heavy dependence on coal that might be sources from Australia and 320 Million Tons of oil a year. China will consume 793 Million Ton of oil a year. Fossil Fuel will supply 81% of the world energy. Oil will make up 87% of the world transport fuel; Biofuel will make up 7%. Global co2 Emission may rise by about 28%. The road transport sectors will double its energy efficiency and the sales of conventional passengers cars will fall to 1/3 of total sales. 31% of the global vehicle fleet will be Hybrids. Renewable energy resource will supply 11% of the world electricity and renewable fuels are increasing at 8% annually. Renewable and hydro will represent more than half the growth of power generation.

The Australian Government Clean energy future legislation has three pillars, carbon pricing mechanism, renewable energy, energy efficiency and carbon farming initiative.

When a government decided to put price on carbon and encourage energy efficiency, is it about carbon emission or about energy security. By putting price on carbon and link it to energy efficiency in the same legislation, government encourages the move to low carbon economy and reduce the dependence on fossil fuel. Government will not say publicly that these measures are for energy security for the next 30 years and beyond, but if you analyse the figures above, you would realise it is more likely about energy security.

Figures are from BP energy outlook 2030, London, January 2012

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